http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/12/30/carville.2009/index.html?iref=newssearch
This article talk about predictions for the Democraric party and the hurdles that the GOP faces in the coming year. Check it out!
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Sorting
The topic I’m choosing this week is whether the 2006 and 2008 elections strengthen or weaken Fiorina’s argument for sorting. I feel that in the 2006-2008 elections Fiorina’s argument is strengthened. Fiorina speaks of sorting in an example using and urn with marbles. One urn has 33 red (R), 33 BLUE (D), and 34 gray (I). The other urn has 50 red marbles (R) and 50 blue marbles (D). Fiorina says this is “what we think most people understand by polarization” (p. 61). The point here is that the gray (independents) have disappeared and that there are only two distinct parties. It seems now that there are no liberal Republicans or conservative Democrats.
Looking at the elections from 2006 the exit polls show that the numbers were very close with differences by only a few percentage points. There was also no other categories except for Republicans and Democrats. This illustrates polarization as well as the parties sorting themselves to either Democrats or Republicans.
CNN.com-Elections2006
As for the 2008 elections there seems to be more polarization. It seems that more people voted for either Democrats or Republicans than anything else. There is a spot for other, but just as Fiorina says with the marble example it is virtually non-existent.
CNN. Com/election/2008/results/polls
Also to talk about Fiorina’s argument a bit more, even if you look at the map of blue and red states we see that some states actually changed color from red to blue. Does this mean that there is even more polarization? I think this does because I feel that proves that the people that were once in the middle or moderates chose a side in the 2008 election.
Looking at the elections from 2006 the exit polls show that the numbers were very close with differences by only a few percentage points. There was also no other categories except for Republicans and Democrats. This illustrates polarization as well as the parties sorting themselves to either Democrats or Republicans.
CNN.com-Elections2006
As for the 2008 elections there seems to be more polarization. It seems that more people voted for either Democrats or Republicans than anything else. There is a spot for other, but just as Fiorina says with the marble example it is virtually non-existent.
CNN. Com/election/2008/results/polls
Also to talk about Fiorina’s argument a bit more, even if you look at the map of blue and red states we see that some states actually changed color from red to blue. Does this mean that there is even more polarization? I think this does because I feel that proves that the people that were once in the middle or moderates chose a side in the 2008 election.
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